The looming NFL lockout will cast a shadow on 2010

In a recent SI.com article, DeMaurice Smith, president of the NFL Players' Association, said, "Chad Ochocinco asked me at the draft, on a scale of 1 to 10 where do you see the possibility of a lockout? I'd put it at about a 14."

This is not the first comment from Smith or many others closely tied to the new collective bargaining discussions to convey such pessimism.  It looks like 2011 may be unlike any the NFL has seen since 1987 when strike-replacement players were taking the field.  Since then, the NFL has flourished and become an empire in almost every aspect from merchandising to television and media coverage to fan interest.  From the outside fan looking in, this standoff doesn't make any sense.  They see the billionaires vs. the millionaires.

NFLPA president DeMaurice Smith knows his union is in a no-win situation (photo: AP).

Obviously the issues are more complicated than that.  The players are willing to extend the past contract while trying to work something out in the meantime, but the owners are steadfast in their refusal to do so.  They say the climate has changed and the recently-completed CBA has to change to go forward.  The owners want the players to contribute from their share of the revenue split toward new stadiums and capital improvements.  The players claim that no other sport asks players to do this and they shouldn't have to in this case.  That is just one of the many key issues on the table.

I think we all know in the end how this will turn out.  In most CBA disputes in major professional American sports, the owners hold the upper hand.  The NBA crushed its union in the 1999 standoff and the NHL locked out an entire season while defeating its players' union.  Even in baseball, where the players have made more inroads than any of the others, the owners still have come out on top.

In the NFL, the owners are going to win.  There is no realistic alternative option for the players to make a living unless they flood the Canadian Football League and that isn't going to happen.  The owners have planned for this years ago.  The current television deal will pay them almost $4 billion if they don't play this season, allowing them to build a war chest the players cannot compete with.  The owners have already aligned assistant coaching contracts with the lockout in mind. 

Smith said they advised the players last year to hold back 25 percent of their salaries in 2009 and 2010 for this exact situation, but too many players live paycheck-to-paycheck whether that is to maintain their current lifestyle or to deal with off-field issues such as alimony and child support.

So here we sit in the small gap before training camps kick off in earnest and the 2010 season will be right around the corner.  For the most part, these issues will not be noticed other than articles in the media and occasional television commentaries, but those who follow the league will feel it casting a shadow all season long.  The uncertainty of what lies ahead is uncomfortable for all involved. 

For example, look at my beloved Cleveland Browns.  I know they won't be making their first trip to the Super Bowl in 2011, but the hope of the fanbase is with the new leadership group led by Mike Holmgren and the optimism from the way the 2009 season ended with four consecutive wins that this team is finally pointed in the right direction.  With the lockout looming, everything is on hold.  Teams don't want to commit money and sign deals involving 2011.  Coach Eric Mangini may be a lame-duck coach, but no one knows yet.  Veteran players won't get deals for much, if any, money for that season and many long-time veterans across the league will be out of jobs.

Dallas owner Jerry Jones knows the owners hold all the cards in the CBA negotiations.

For other teams who are reaching their windows for a championship run, they may have the plug pulled on their chances.  Teams like New Orleans, Arizona, Green Bay and the New York Jets all will be a year older, a year with more rust on their bodies and offseason uncertainty regarding coaches and contracts will loom.

I am not sure what the players can do.  The fans may scream that they won't follow or support the NFL anymore, but that simply isn't true.  If they can come back in the other sports that don't have the fan support of the NFL, they will come back to football too.  The owners know this.  People LOVE the NFL and will always be there.  A non-descript regular-season Sunday game has ratings higher than playoff games of most other sports and the owners will use this knowledge to get what they want.

So, for an argument with only one real possible outcome, that of an owners' victory, it is frustrating that an entire season could potentially be impacted.  Yes, the players have some issues the owners can address such as the health insurance and coverage of current and former players and I am sure the draft will be tweeked too, but overall they are fighting tanks with sticks and rocks.  I think the NFLPA leaders know this deep-down, but would never admit it.  My hope is they take that understanding into negotiations and get something done before America's favorite game is missing next fall.