Tuesday, June 29, 2010

LeBron and the fate of the Cavs

So Thursday begins the NBA free agency period, one that will shape the face of the league for years to come.  Big names like Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudamire, Joe Johnson and Dirk Nowitzki are all out to be had along with some lesser, but still important players like David Lee and Carlos Boozer.  Obviously, unless you have been living under a rock for the past two years, you know the real story is the future of LeBron James. 
James' fate will determine where the rest of the dominoes will fall.  Teams like the New York Knicks basically sandbagged the last two seasons, even pretty much admitting as much to its fans, in an effort to clear salary cap space for James.

All of that has been well documented.  The only real question left is, "where he will wind up?"

LeBron's destination is the biggest question in sports

This week's news has surrounded rumors LeBron is destined for Miami or Chicago, both of which have created significant space under the cap with trades.  In Miami, he could team up with Wade and possibly Bosh to form a fearsome trio.  If he goes to Chicago, Bosh may join along and they could team up with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah on an up-and-coming squad.

New Jersey, New York, the L.A. Clippers and Dallas all can make up scenarios that could intrigue James, but I don't think any are the threat to his resigning in Cleveland that Miami and Chicago provide.

In my heart, as a northeast Ohio native, I would love to see him come back.  Cleveland can offer him more money than any city and northeast Ohio is his home.  He has strong roots in the area, which include a large number of friends, his ties to the University of Akron and the community that helped raise him.  He is a product of a young, single mother and as a result many others helped him get to where he is today. 

LeBron knows if he leaves things will never be the same at home again.  He won't be Art Modell, but he will have caused some serious ill will and will have lost the fan support of the area.  Many outsiders don't understand his ties to home.  Most of the pundits are from big cities or fans from places where they can't understand what draw Cleveland would have for him.  I understand Cleveland isn't the most glamorous place.  I understand how it looks to outsiders, but to folks from there it is a different ball of wax.  Home means more for anyone, no matter where it is.  I believe LeBron has some serious conflictions and considerations with this decision.

Cleveland will never be the same if LeBron leaves

Can Cleveland give him the best chance to win immediately?  Probably not unless it pulls off a sign-and-trade for one of the max-caliber players and pulls off some trades to clear cap space.  That said, if he comes back, with the remaining players they still are a top-three team in the Eastern Conference and contenders, just maybe not the high-end, flashy contenders he could have in Miami or Chicago.  He has seen that owner Dan Gilbert is willing to spend and do whatever LeBron wants, but he has also seen coaching changes and franchise that is in a tough spot.

In the end, it's his call, but a tough one with an emotional element that can't be ignored.  I do believe he hasn't made up his mind yet, but I am also not blind to what's out there.  In the end, I think he'll turn to his chances to win multiple titles with the other max players and consider his legacy in the game as the key to his decision.  He won't want to turn his back on home, but he'll do so for his own future and hope people can understand.  So, ultimately I believe he'll take the Chicago or Miami route and Cleveland will be left in a tough place.

Dan Gilbert has tried his best to keep LeBron happy

Without LeBron, I am not sure Cleveland will ever win a title.  Only the 2004 Detroit Pistons have won a NBA title in the last 30 years without a superstar and that team had multiple all-stars.  No free agent is going to sign with the Cavs unless another star is there and the only way another star winds up in Cleveland is by draft.  Then the chances that star will be of LeBron's caliber is unlikely and the chance they are from northeast Ohio is just about zero.  So, if that guy ever does turn up he won't resign even the first time like LeBron did and the Cavs will be in NBA purgatory again. 

We'll see what LeBron chooses.  Only the future of Cleveland basketball success lies with his decision.

Dwyane Wade is looking for fellow superstar LeBron to join him in Miami